On October 26, 2014 – day of the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine – “National Exit Poll” consortium which includes Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF), Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), and Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Researches named after Oleksanr Razumkov (Razumkov Centre) will conduct the National Exit Poll-2014.
On October 26, 2014 – day of the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine – “National Exit Poll” consortium which includes Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF), Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), and Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Researches named after Oleksanr Razumkov (Razumkov Centre) will conduct the National Exit Poll-2014.
The main aim of the project is to maintain civic control over fairness of electoral process and obtain information about socio-demographic structure of parties’ electorates.
The National Exit Poll-2014 is funded by consortium of international donors:
- International Renaissance Foundation;
- Matra Program of the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine;
- National Endowment for Democracy (USA);
- PACT project of UNITER, USAID;
- European Union.
General coordination and financial and media management of the exit poll will be conducted by DIF. Polling of voters will be performed by KIIS and Razumkov Centre. Scientific management, development of sample, and coordination of polling work will be made by KIIS.
The sample will be representative for Ukraine in general and for its four regions (West, Center, East, South) in particular. Constant step of selection of voters will be used during the elections day.
Number of voting stations – 400 (200 for each sociological firm).
Sample size – around 17,000 respondents (depending on level turnout).
Average number of respondents on each voting station – around 45.
Number of interviewers – 2-3 persons will work at each voting station. Totally, around 1,000 of previously trained respondents will be involved.
Sample error. Statistical sample error taking into account design-effect does not exceed 1.3%, nevertheless there are difficulties to estimate systematic errors, which depend upon many factors (including weather conditions). Relying on the experience of previous exit polls, which were carried out with the application of the same methodology, we assume that sample error will not exceed 2.5% for the leaders and will be within the limits of 0.5-1.5% for other parties. In 2012 parliamentary elections maximum sample error did not exceed 1.9%, and in 2014 presidential elections maximum sample error did not exceed 1.2%.
Data collection method and questionnaire. We offer to use the methodology of «secret ballot», since it decreases the number of refusals and considerably increases reliability of the exit poll data. In the course of research, instead of direct question “Please tell whom did you vote for?”, the respondent independently fills in the questionnaire which begins with this very question. In addition to this question, there will be questions on gender, age group, education, and time of making decision for whom to vote. While respondent is asked to fill in the demographic questions, he/she is instructed that this is not obligatory.
Results of the National Exit Poll-2014 will be presented in the informational agency “Ukrinform” (8/16 Bohdana Khmelnytskoho Street) on October 26, 2014:
– 19.45 – start of first press conference.
– 20.01 – presentation of preliminary results of (as of 6 PM) the exit poll.
– 23.00 – second press conference during which specified results (as of 8 PM) of the exit poll will be presented.
Detailed report of results of the exit poll will be presented after collection of all paper questionnaires – tentatively, on November 4 or 5.
DIF also plans to publish a book on the results of the National Exit Poll-2014 (as it does after each election).
One long and three video clips about the National Exit Poll-2014 will be produced.
Realization of the project will be made under control of the Observing Council which includes leaders of NGOs, prominent journalists, domestic and foreign experts. Foreign experts will also consult and control the performance of the polling work.
