The decline in the country’s population is one of the biggest challenges brought about by Russia’s full-scale aggression. In its January 2023 inflation report, the NBU explicitly states that “…. unfavorable economic and social conditions in the country in the postwar period may increase emigration after the lifting of restrictions on the departure of men aged 18-60. This will lead to a labor shortage and increased imbalances in the labor market, which will worsen the prospects for economic recovery. In the long run, there is a risk of a future demographic crisis due to the large number of young people who have left Ukraine.”
In addition, taking into account the experience of the war in the former Yugoslavia, where only a third of those who left returned home after the war, it can be assumed that without facilitating the return of Ukrainians from abroad and attracting foreign labor migrants, Ukraine’s economy may be doomed to degradation and its population to further decline.
A new project supported by the International Renaissance Foundation aims to find out what else can be done to prevent the worst-case scenarios and how serious the problem is.
The Vision 2033 project aims to:
- preserving and developing Ukraine’s labor force
- facilitating the return of Ukrainians who are currently abroad, reducing the volume of labor migration from Ukraine and attracting labor migrants from other countries
- ensuring the preparation of specialized legislation that will be based on facts and comply with the principles of non-discrimination and respect for human rights.
With the support of the Foundation, the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies, together with the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, as well as the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and Mariupol State University, will find out whether the growth of the Ukrainian economy can really be achieved without the return of Ukrainians from abroad and the involvement of labor migrants from other countries.
During the discussion “What jobs does Ukraine need?” held as part of the project, the participants talked about different sectors and the personnel needed to ensure the operation of these sectors.
Among the participants was Oleksiy Orlovsky, Director of the Democracy and Good Governance Program of our Foundation, who emphasized the staff shortage in the public sector:
“The problem of staff shortage is extremely urgent today. For example, Donetsk Regional State Administration is only 72% staffed. The situation is worse at the level of district administrations and local governments that are still in exile. In some districts, only 25% of the positions are filled,” says Oleksiy.
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the government has taken many steps to address this issue. This includes amending legislation, simplifying procedures for entering the public service, switching to remote work, increasing the salaries of officials working in the territories of active hostilities, etc. On May 25, the Cabinet of Ministers launched a pilot project to create a personnel reserve for the civil service. As of December, about 2,800 applications had been submitted for this project. This is one of the steps the government is already taking to ensure public human capital management. Unfortunately, there are not many people willing to work in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
“That is why our Foundation supports a coalition of four NGOs led by the All-Ukrainian Organization of Self-Governance of the Population, which deals with the post-war institutional restoration of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. As part of this cooperation, we are working on the topic of personnel for public authorities for the future,” emphasized Oleksiy Orlovsky.
