On August 20th, the issue of ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court was reviewed by the Committee on Foreign Policy and Inter-Parliamentary Cooperation, which recommended its adoption. This development effectively paves the way for finalizing nearly a decade-long discussion and addresses the remaining formalities needed to ensure Ukraine’s full participation in the activities of this institution. The International Criminal Court (ICC) gained the authority to investigate crimes committed during Russia’s war against Ukraine after the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine recognized its jurisdiction through declarations in 2014 and 2015.
This formal step had been delayed for a long time due to political maneuvering, fueled by myths, misconceptions, and the frequent exploitation of the military’s name for political advantage.
Recognizing the need to understand Ukrainian military personnel’s perspectives on justice and the ratification of the Rome Statute, the NGO “Ukrainian Legal Advisory Group” (ULAG), in collaboration with the Sociological Group “Rating” and supported by the International Renaissance Foundation, conducted a survey titled “Justice in the Context of Russian Armed Aggression: Military Personnel’s Assessments and Attitudes.”
The survey targeted active military personnel, with a sample size of 660 respondents. The method used was formalized face-to-face interviews, with a margin of error of no more than 4.0% at a confidence level of 0.95. The survey was conducted between July 25 and August 12, 2024.
The research aimed to capture the views of military personnel using sociological methods rather than through the interpretations and assumptions commonly seen during the preparation for the vote on the ratification bill.
The findings contradict the claims made by politicians regarding military resistance to ratification issues or the establishment of justice in the context of war crimes committed during the Russian-Ukrainian war since 2014.
Attitudes towards the ratification of the Rome Statute
- Over 70% of active military personnel who are informed about the Rome Statute back Ukraine’s ratification of it, while 15% oppose it. Another 14% remain undecided. Public sentiment aligns with these views, as evidenced by a December 2022 national survey by the Sociological Group “Rating” in collaboration with ULAG, showing that 32% of Ukrainians fully support the ratification and 47% generally favor it. This indicates a broad national consensus on the issue among both the public and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
- It is important to note that 40% of surveyed military personnel believe the President of Ukraine bears the primary responsibility for the final decision on ratifying the Rome Statute. Another 40% attribute this responsibility to the Verkhovna Rada, and 8% to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. Additionally, 51% of respondents think this decision should primarily reflect public opinion. Nearly 40% say the opinions of military personnel should be considered, just over a fifth believe the views of the senior military command are important, and almost one fifth think veterans’ opinions should be taken into account.
- 58% believe that the International Criminal Court can investigate the most serious international crimes committed on Ukrainian territory and hold Ukrainian military and political leaders accountable without the ratification of the Rome Statute. Conversely, 27% think it cannot. Additionally, 15% were unable to provide a definitive answer to this question.
- Among military personnel, there is a high level of understanding and awareness of the workings of the ICC, including the potential benefits and risks associated with investigating war crimes. According to respondents, the most significant advantages of ratifying the Rome Statute include enhanced guarantees for the arrest of individuals by third countries based on ICC warrants (38%) and a positive impact on criminal justice reforms in Ukraine to ensure justice for victims (35%). Among the primary risks of ratification, more than a third of respondents mentioned the obligation to cooperate with the ICC regardless of whose officials are under investigation. Nearly 20% pointed out that the ICC lacks the authority to investigate Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. Additionally, 14% noted the necessity of contributing financially to the ICC’s budget. About 10% of respondents believe there are no threats associated with ratification.
- Despite a significant demand for information about the progress of investigations and the overall activities of the ICC, surveyed military personnel rate their own level of awareness about the investigation, documentation, and adjudication of war crimes as relatively low. 38% are unaware of the progress of ICC investigations into war crimes. This lack of information correlates with a moderate assessment of the ICC’s effectiveness in investigating and adjudicating war crimes: 28% view it as completely or rather effective, 42% as rather or completely ineffective, and 30% are undecided.
Demand and Vision of Justice
- Military personnel believe that Ukrainian authorities should prioritize punishing those guilty of severe international crimes (64%), compensating victims (46%), uncovering the truth of events (35%), locating missing persons and repatriating deportees (31%), and purging collaborators from the government (26%).
- Nearly 40% of surveyed military personnel believe that ensuring justice for war victims primarily depends on the President, 30% on the International Criminal Court, 28% on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and 27% on Ukrainian citizens. In contrast, the general population of Ukraine attributes more responsibility to governmental bodies: 50% to the President, 37% to the Government, 35% to Parliament, and less to the citizens themselves (21%).
- Nearly 90% of military personnel are willing to support investigations into war crimes, regardless of the side that committed them, if it ensures the guaranteed accountability of Russia’s top leadership.
- Opinions are divided on which courts should adjudicate war crimes resulting from Russia’s aggression: 40% of respondents believe that only Ukrainian courts possess the necessary authority and understanding, while 41% feel that this expertise is found only in foreign courts.
- 53% of military personnel view proceedings in the International Criminal Court as a reflection of the high capability of Ukrainian courts and the potential for synchronizing judicial systems. Conversely, more than a third believe that such proceedings indicate a low capability of Ukrainian courts.
- Almost half of the military personnel surveyed think that special courts with a mix of national and international judges are the most effective way to prosecute war crimes committed by Russia. Additionally, 35% believe international institutions should manage these cases, while 13% see Ukrainian courts as suitable for this role.
- More than 80% of respondents favor establishing a special court system to handle crimes committed during Russia’s war against Ukraine, whereas almost 15% oppose this initiative.
- An overwhelming majority (93%) of respondents believe it is crucial to ensure transparency and regular updates to the public and victims about the progress of court cases regarding war crimes. Nearly half think the International Criminal Court should be responsible for this. Additionally, 29% believe either Ukrainian media or the Supreme Court of Ukraine should handle the updates, while 27% suggest the office of Ukraine’s Prosecutor General should do so.
Source: Sociological group ‘Rating’
