The visa barrier does not affect significantly the number of potential migrants from Ukraine to the EU
October 6, 2011 in Donetsk the results of a nationwide survey of the population migration attitudes in Ukraine were presented. The Donetsk Institute of Social Research and Political Analysis organized it in partnership with think tanks of the civic initiative “Europe without Barriers” with the support of the European Program of the International Renaissance Foundation.
Analysts make the key conclusion that in general 7% of population expressed orientations to move to another country for temporary jobs or permanent residence if the situation in the country does not change or worsens. 11% of people always or often think about the possibility of travel to the European Union (Schengen) countries, while 69% never do it or very rarely. Today 5% of the population have clear plans to travel abroad for a long term stay (more than six months). The introduction of visa-free entry to Schengen countries for short visits will insignificantly affect the migration behavior of the Ukrainians. An absolute majority does not consider the visa regime with Europe to be a significant barrier to emigration or labour migration, but it is an outstanding obstacle for tourist or personal travelling.
Ukrainians tend to go primarily to those countries whose culture they like and where their relatives or friends live – namely, to European countries (40%), Russia (19%) and the United States and Canada (14%). Among the European countries majority chooses Germany and Italy (22%) and France (17%). However, few of the respondents have actual experience of traveling abroad, in particular the share of those who were in the Schengen states, accounts for only 12%. The main deterrent for international travel or emigration is the lack of sufficient funds, however, once the visa regime with the EU is cancelled 15% of respondents are ready to use this opportunity immediately. Only 32% of the Ukrainians own an international passport (mainly in the western regions – 40%, the least in the eastern – 28%).
As research demonstrated, the key factor that affects the Ukrainians’ wish to go abroad is the current socio-economic situation. 36% of respondents negatively assess its changes over the last year. As for future prospects, the distribution of optimists and pessimists is almost symmetrical – one third (33% and 32%), roughly the same number believes that the changes will not happen. 41% of respondents indicated that can do nothing to improve the situation.
According to the project leader Vladimir Kipen, “the results received “de-mythologize” the problem of migration from Ukraine – the Ukrainians’ mass exodus to Europe for work or residence will not happen, even when Schengen entry visas are lifted; yet, provided a stable social and economic situation in the country is preserved.”
The survey was carried out in summer 2011 with a national sample of 3002 respondents. The sampling error in the study accounts for +/-1.8%.
The Donetsk Institute of Social Research and Political Analysis
(+38 062) 305 02 59
disrpa@gmail.com
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Goal of the European Program is to promote Ukraine’s European integration by providing financial and expert support to relevant civil society initiatives.
